Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaged in a long war of attrition in Ukraine and will do his utmost to try to use economic weapons, such as banning Ukrainian grain exports, to reduce Western support for Kiev, according to members of Russia's economic elite close to Putin.
The Kremlin has used recent signals by some European governments as an indication that the West may lose focus in seeking to counter Russia's attack on Ukraine, especially as global energy costs rise after sanctions against Moscow.
A Russian billionaire close to the Kremlin, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Washington Post that Putin "believes the West will become exhausted."
"Putin did not expect a strong and unified West response at first, but he is now trying to reshape the situation and believes he will win in the long run," the billionaire added.
"Putin believes that Western leaders are vulnerable to election cycles, and it is likely that public opinion there could turn around in one day."
The ban on Russian seaborne oil exports announced by the European Union this week has been praised by Charles Michel, president of the European Council, as putting maximum "pressure on Russia to end the war," but a Russian official close to the Kremlin says it will have little impact in the short term."
"The Kremlin's mood is that we cannot lose regardless of the cost," the official continued.
The Kremlin noted that the EU's move had only led to a further rise in global energy prices, and said it would seek to shift supplies to other markets in Asia, despite the EU's ban on Russian shipments.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with The Washington Post that countries "feel the impact of these sanctions more than we do, the West has made one mistake after another, leading to increased crises, and claiming that all this is because of what is happening in Ukraine, and because of Putin, is not true."
This position suggests that the Kremlin believes it can withstand more than the West in overcoming the impact of economic sanctions.
Sergei Guriev, former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said Putin had no choice but to continue the war in the hope that the grain blockade in Ukraine would "lead to instability in the Middle East and provoke a new influx of refugees."
The Kremlin's aggressive stance appears to reflect the thinking of Nikolai Patrushev, the hardline head of Russia's Security Council, who served with Putin in Russian intelligence and is increasingly seen as a hardline ideologue leading Russia's war in Ukraine, a close security adviser who Moscow insiders believe can reach Putin.
In three highly anti-Western interviews with Russian newspapers since the invasion, patrushev, who was previously shy of propaganda, declared that Europe was on the brink of a "deep economic and political crisis" because of high inflation and already low living standards, which had affected europe's mood other than the potential migrant crisis would create new security threats.
In one interview, he stated that the world would gradually fall into an unprecedented food crisis. It will be clear that tens of millions of people in Africa or the Middle East on the brink of famine because of the West and for survival will flee to Europe.
"I'm not sure Europe will survive the crisis," Patrushev told the state-run Newspaper Russkaya Gazeta in an interview.
In another interview last week with the popular newspaper Argumenty and Fakty, Patrushev said Russia "is not rushing to meet deadlines" in its military campaign in Ukraine.
The Russian billionaire added that the Russian military is making gradual gains in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, and instead of seeking an immediate and decisive battle, Putin believes time is in his favor.
"Putin is a very patient man, he can wait six to nine months, and he can control Russian society much more tightly than the West can control its society."